What energy infrastructure to support 1.5°C scenarios?

Abstract

The ambition of the European Commission is that Europe should become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. All analytical exercises point to the crucial role of getting the infrastructure right, in order to support a cost-effective and secure transition towards a net-zero economy. In particular, in its 2018 Long-Term Strategy (LTS), the European Commission has designed pathways relying on key pillars: energy efficiency, direct and indirect electrification of end-uses, renewables, electrolysis and biomethane. In such contexts, key questions arise:  What is the optimal design of the supporting infrastructure?  Where should electrolysis take place?  What flexibility solutions should be deployed to meet security of supply requirements?  What is the role of the gas infrastructure? As we move from importing natural gas from third countries to a more local provision of bio-methane and hydrogen, the very structure of the gas flows will evolve. How relevant is it to repurpose part of the gas infrastructure? This report provides an independent and forward-looking assessment of EU’s energy infrastructure needs in order to support its global energy ambitions. In order to better understand the role of energy infrastructure and to obtain insights into about the investment challenge Europe faces, we have aimed at optimising the level of infrastructure for several sets of assumptions.